Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | YALE -2500 MVSU +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +29 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -21.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-8.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -15.3 (+13.7) | 142.3 (-11.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -17.1 (+11.9) | 137.8 (-6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -12.5 (+16.5) | 140.4 (-9.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-1 | 4-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#64) | -16.3 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#62) | -0.63 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#59) | -0.91 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#126) | 0.500 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 37.8% |
| 3PT% | 41.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 28.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 93.1% | 44.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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