Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC +240 PRIN -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +30 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -6.5 (-36.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.0 (-34.0) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -2.4 (-32.4) | 149.3 (+8.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2021 | PRIN 89 – 77 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 10-4 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#254) | 1.1 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#217) | -1.84 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#225) | -2.58 (#330) |
| RPI | — | 0.562 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.1% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 29.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 3.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 12.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 9.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 60.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 86.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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