Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRIN +12 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | PRIN -7.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRIN -6.8 (+5.2) | 157.9 (+8.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRIN -5.5 (+6.5) | 158.5 (+7.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRIN -6.3 (+5.7) | 157.4 (+8.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRIN -7.0 (+5.0) | 157.0 (+9.0) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2022 | PRIN 94 – 64 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRIN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-7 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 12-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#128) | -0.4 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#91) | -0.20 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#104) | -0.50 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#119) | 0.490 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRIN | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 14.8% |
Game Analysis
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