Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF +180 UVM -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +9 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -10.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (+43.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -6.3 (+2.7) | 137.9 (+41.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -2.3 (+6.7) | 133.2 (+45.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -5.6 (+3.4) | 140.6 (+38.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -6.1 (+2.9) | 140.7 (+38.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#274) | -4.1 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#150) | -0.28 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#155) | -0.47 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#29) | 0.500 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 14.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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