Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HAW -250 EWU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +20 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -9.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -12.4 (+7.6) | 134.3 (-12.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -9.0 (+11.0) | 130.0 (-8.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -10.3 (+9.7) | 136.0 (-14.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#276) | -3.2 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#140) | -1.19 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#137) | -1.67 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#126) | 0.500 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.5% | 26.1% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 23.0 | 4.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 59.0% | 11.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.3% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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