Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -34.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -20000 DSU +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -22.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -16.5 (-6.5) | 143.8 (-33.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -15.6 (-5.6) | 138.6 (-28.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -14.0 (-4.0) | 143.2 (-33.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 4-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#156) | -10.3 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#235) | -0.34 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#203) | -0.53 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#126) | 0.500 (#126) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 55.6% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 24.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 8.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 60.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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