Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | CIN -1600 EKU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -18.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -16.7 (+1.3) | 133.9 (+22.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -12.8 (+5.2) | 134.6 (+21.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#164) | -5.9 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#146) | -1.90 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#144) | -2.63 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.250 (#232) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 19.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 44.0 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.6% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 47.2% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 12.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 85.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.5% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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