Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +17 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | VT -34.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+35.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -31.4 (-14.4) | 138.7 (+32.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -27.9 (-10.9) | 139.5 (+31.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -24.4 (-7.4) | 141.9 (+29.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#23) | -12.8 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#97) | -1.89 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#81) | -2.76 (#335) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#99) | 0.500 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.3% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.20 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 62.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 11.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 12.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 59.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 4.8% | 6.5% |
Game Analysis
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