Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -1600 NE +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +24 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -8.5 (+15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+19.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -9.0 (+15.0) | 135.9 (+18.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -6.2 (+17.8) | 140.0 (+14.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#260) | -0.3 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#122) | -0.51 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#150) | -0.72 (#261) |
| RPI | — | 0.250 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.0% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 21.1% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.0% | 43.9% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 52.0% | 40.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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