Betting Lines
| Spread | L-MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD -138 BRWN +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | L-MD -20.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | L-MD -7.4 (-2.4) | 138.2 (+6.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | L-MD -10.0 (-5.0) | 142.9 (+2.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | L-MD -9.9 (-4.9) | 141.5 (+3.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | L-MD -11.1 (-6.1) | 140.0 (+5.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | L-MD 77 – 75 BRWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-7 |
| Home | 9-6 | 7-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#172) | -8.5 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#248) | -2.80 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#218) | -3.99 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#80) | 0.062 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 27.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 20.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.9% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.9% | 63.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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