Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -2000 MORG +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +15 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -17.3 (-2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -15.2 (-0.2) | 145.5 (-22.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -18.1 (-3.1) | 143.1 (-20.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#134) | -3.8 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#126) | -0.36 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#122) | -0.52 (#237) |
| RPI | — | 0.500 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 40.7% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 36.7% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 95.7% | 40.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 43.5% |
Game Analysis
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