Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ND -500 YSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +7 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | ND -4.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -4.5 (+2.5) | 155.1 (+13.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.7 (+5.3) | 155.1 (+13.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -3.7 (+3.3) | 155.5 (+13.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-5 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 0-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#234) | 4.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#137) | 1.93 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#148) | 2.73 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#99) | 0.438 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | YSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 45.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 43.8% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.