Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | OMA -163 IDHO +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -6.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -1.3 (+5.7) | 139.6 (+11.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -0.2 (+6.8) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#245) | 2.3 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#271) | -0.41 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#269) | -0.48 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#99) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | IDHO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 26.3% | 20.0% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 21.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 11.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 35.4% |
Game Analysis
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