Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UK -1600 DUQ +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +25 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UK -16.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -11.5 (+13.5) | 148.6 (-19.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -10.8 (+14.2) | 150.6 (-21.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#33) | 4.7 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#145) | 0.43 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#117) | 0.66 (#74) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.8% | 64.4% |
| 3PT% | 45.8% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.7% | 72.9% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 8.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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