Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -24.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UVA -4000 MONM +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +47 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -18.7 (+28.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -17.2 (+29.8) | 135.7 (-4.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -14.4 (+32.6) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 7-26 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 3-10 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 61.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#139) | -4.3 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#148) | -0.43 (#187) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#133) | -0.65 (#234) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 29.8% |
| 3PT% | 44.0% | 10.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.00 | 0.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 31.6% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 30.5% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 46.8% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 43.4% |
Game Analysis
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