Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -15.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -8.5 (-9.5) | 146.9 (-1.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -7.0 (-8.0) | 148.5 (-3.5) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 10-10 |
| Home | 4-13 | 9-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 74.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#257) | -6.3 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.86 (#292) | -1.86 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.10 (#283) | -2.54 (#290) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | WRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 12.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.0% | 59.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 88.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.9% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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