Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -4000 UIW +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +25 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -24.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -17.6 (+7.4) | 131.1 (+19.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -13.8 (+11.2) | 133.4 (+17.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#184) | -11.5 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#111) | -2.24 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#110) | -3.36 (#308) |
| RPI | — | 0.250 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.2% | 36.1% |
| 3PT% | 15.4% | 15.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 35.4% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 66.7% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.4% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 36.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 61.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 36.0% |
Game Analysis
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