Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -1600 MONT +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +22 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -21.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -22.8 (-0.8) | 151.3 (-1.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -17.8 (+4.2) | 149.8 (+0.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 10-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#93) | -4.7 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#120) | -0.43 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#84) | -0.66 (#235) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.6% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 47.0 | 23.0 |
| OREB / G | 18.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 44.2% |
| TOV% | 24.7% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 60.0% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 43.5% | 32.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 72.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 8.5% |
Game Analysis
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