Betting Lines
| Spread | RUTG -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | RUTG -1200 UML +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RUTG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RUTG +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | RUTG -12.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RUTG -9.1 (-1.1) | 132.9 (+5.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RUTG -10.3 (-2.3) | 137.6 (+0.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RUTG -6.9 (+1.1) | 139.6 (-1.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RUTG | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#6) | 13.6 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#36) | 1.84 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#29) | 2.76 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#10) | 0.500 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RUTG | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 57.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.5% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 64.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 27.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 50.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.0% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 33.5% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 79.7% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.0% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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