Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -275 LONG +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +14 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -15.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+20.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -3.1 (+10.9) | 134.0 (+18.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -4.5 (+9.5) | 133.2 (+18.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#185) | -2.3 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#198) | -0.43 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#217) | -0.64 (#222) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 26.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 30.3% |
| TOV% | 27.6% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 5.4% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.6% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 24.3% |
| DRB% | 55.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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