Betting Lines
| Spread | PRIN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY +110 PRIN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +1 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -30.3 (-29.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -23.9 (-22.9) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -17.8 (-16.8) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-4 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#15) | -6.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#13) | -1.86 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#9) | -2.58 (#292) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | PRIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 47.6% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 6.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 59.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 11.1% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 84.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 6.1% |
Game Analysis
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