That man could give a fuck about the grin on your face as you walk by randy as a goat. "Never Say Never" - Romeo Void
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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41–15 on winners spread MAE 9.0 56 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech +9.6 155.6 81% 67–77 ✓
San José State @ Fresno State +15.0 121.8 91% 67–69 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas State +0.6 137.1 52% 73–67 ✗
Hartford @ UMBC +5.6 152.8 69% 60–80 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +18.0 135.7 95% 42–74 ✓
Clemson @ Virginia Tech +4.2 131.9 65% 75–76 ✓
Rider @ Iona +11.1 141.6 84% 71–70 ✗
Navy @ Colgate +5.4 129.8 69% 58–74 ✓
DePaul @ St. John's +6.5 157.5 72% 73–92 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt +9.5 146.4 81% 51–86 ✓
McNeese @ Northwestern State -2.1 160.8 42% 80–67 ✓
Coppin State @ Howard +6.6 151.7 73% 59–57 ✗
Minnesota @ Penn State +1.6 125.9 56% 51–60 ✓
Old Dominion @ UTEP +0.9 127.4 53% 64–74 ✓
California @ Washington State +7.7 125.8 76% 59–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Sam Houston +2.3 131.9 58% 35–65 ✓
Southern Miss @ Florida Atlantic +15.1 141.5 92% 59–86 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State +1.9 146.9 57% 63–64 ✓
Fairfield @ Saint Peter's +4.0 123.1 64% 63–77 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia +5.1 122.3 68% 50–51 ✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall +12.3 148.3 87% 53–57 ✓
Utah @ Washington -1.3 144.8 45% 70–82 ✗
Utah Valley @ Abilene Christian -1.6 138.6 44% 74–82 ✗
Central Michigan @ Toledo +19.8 148.7 96% 71–72 ✓
Indiana @ Michigan +0.7 136.8 53% 74–69 ✗
Syracuse @ Duke +10.5 157.3 83% 79–88 ✓
Butler @ Providence +8.5 130.1 78% 61–65 ✓
Florida @ Texas A&M -1.0 134.9 46% 80–83 ✗
George Mason @ Fordham -4.9 131.7 33% 49–54 ✗
TCU @ Texas +4.9 122.8 67% 65–60 ✗
East Carolina @ Cincinnati +6.3 138.5 72% 63–74 ✓
Buffalo @ Akron -2.3 142.0 42% 68–70 ✗
Northwestern @ Iowa +8.5 153.8 78% 76–112 ✓
Sacramento State @ Montana State +10.7 132.9 83% 61–83 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis +12.8 143.3 88% 51–71 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +6.0 142.6 71% 69–71 ✓
Marquette @ Creighton -2.7 140.7 40% 63–74 ✗
Stanford @ Arizona +17.2 146.8 94% 80–84 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +8.5 138.2 78% 69–71 ✓
Grambling @ Southern +7.4 140.3 75% 60–58 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +6.2 140.9 71% 61–72 ✓
Missouri @ LSU +14.3 130.0 90% 68–76 ✓
West Virginia @ Kansas +12.9 149.2 88% 63–87 ✓
Tulsa @ Wichita State +6.4 135.0 72% 73–67 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Kent State +6.3 139.9 72% 75–85 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +4.2 142.9 65% 56–68 ✓
Oregon @ Colorado -0.4 140.4 49% 69–80 ✗
UNLV @ Wyoming +3.0 138.8 61% 56–59 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Irvine +0.6 126.7 52% 78–69 ✗
Mississippi State @ South Carolina -4.4 137.6 34% 73–51 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +7.4 147.1 75% 60–75 ✓
South Carolina State @ Morgan State +0.9 146.6 53% 77–80 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Washington -2.0 157.2 43% 99–88 ✓
Rice @ North Texas +11.5 128.2 85% 50–68 ✓
Ball State @ Ohio +9.5 147.5 81% 67–77 ✓
Maryland @ Michigan State +3.6 141.2 63% 72–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.