We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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23–9 on winners spread MAE 9.9 32 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Wagner @ Bryant -3.1 153.4 39% 43–70 ✗
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington -2.3 136.9 42% 59–55 ✓
Wright State @ Northern Kentucky -0.5 140.4 48% 72–71 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Louisville +1.3 135.7 55% 74–84 ✓
Canisius @ Fairfield +2.7 133.5 60% 50–72 ✓
Marshall @ Florida International -1.4 150.9 45% 74–62 ✓
Southern Miss @ UTSA +2.9 140.0 60% 67–64 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Gonzaga +9.3 140.9 80% 69–82 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +8.1 154.3 77% 69–75 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Cal State Northridge -4.3 128.8 35% 58–45 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ California Baptist +7.3 151.5 75% 80–81 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Marist +3.7 145.4 63% 77–52 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Davis +6.7 128.3 73% 53–63 ✓
Chicago State @ Utah Valley +15.3 134.8 92% 47–69 ✓
Idaho @ Sacramento State +1.0 145.8 53% 54–57 ✓
Syracuse @ Florida State -1.3 152.0 45% 96–57 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ La Salle -4.4 139.0 35% 56–63 ✗
New Mexico @ Nevada +2.1 159.5 57% 72–79 ✓
Idaho State @ Portland State +6.2 135.8 71% 52–66 ✓
Boston College @ Wake Forest +9.4 143.1 80% 82–77 ✗
Stanford @ Arizona State +1.7 128.1 56% 71–70 ✗
Jackson State @ Texas Southern +4.9 122.3 67% 50–54 ✓
Duquesne @ Rhode Island +9.5 130.9 81% 77–79 ✓
Air Force @ Utah State +14.1 128.1 90% 56–83 ✓
Butler @ Xavier +9.2 132.2 80% 89–82 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Eastern Washington +9.3 145.4 80% 75–78 ✓
Oregon State @ Oregon +11.5 149.0 85% 72–86 ✓
Ole Miss @ Missouri -4.1 131.6 35% 60–72 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian +2.4 143.7 59% 64–74 ✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State +18.6 134.4 95% 66–74 ✓
Nebraska @ Northwestern +7.1 152.3 74% 69–71 ✓
Rice @ Charlotte +1.9 149.9 57% 73–61 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.