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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
10–3 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
South Dakota
@
South Dakota State
|
+9.8 | 157.9 | 81% | 60–83 | ✓ |
Wright State
@
Cleveland State
|
+0.7 | 152.6 | 53% | 82–67 | ✗ |
Louisiana
@
Georgia State
|
+0.8 | 139.7 | 53% | 71–80 | ✓ |
Furman
@
Chattanooga
|
+0.2 | 141.4 | 51% | 63–64 | ✓ |
Charleston
@
UNC Wilmington
|
-2.4 | 155.9 | 41% | 57–60 | ✗ |
San Francisco
@
Gonzaga
|
+11.0 | 154.8 | 84% | 71–81 | ✓ |
Oral Roberts
@
North Dakota State
|
-1.9 | 152.5 | 43% | 72–92 | ✗ |
Northern Kentucky
@
Purdue Fort Wayne
|
-1.5 | 137.5 | 45% | 57–43 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
Saint Mary's
|
+5.9 | 140.0 | 70% | 72–75 | ✓ |
Boston College
@
Pittsburgh
|
-2.9 | 126.7 | 40% | 66–46 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+5.5 | 148.6 | 69% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Rider
@
Manhattan
|
-1.2 | 142.5 | 46% | 79–67 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Bellarmine
|
+0.3 | 118.9 | 51% | 72–77 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.