Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +20 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | ORU -2.1 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORU -2.1 (+22.1) | 154.4 (+9.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -0.1 (+19.9) | 151.6 (+12.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ORU -0.4 (+20.4) | 153.2 (+10.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORU -0.5 (+20.5) | 153.8 (+10.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | NDSU 76 – 65 ORU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | NDSU 86 – 58 ORU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NDSU 79 – 77 ORU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | NDSU 94 – 88 ORU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | NDSU 110 – 96 ORU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#179) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#132) | 0.06 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#149) | 0.22 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#120) | 0.510 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 77.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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