Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | GONZ -1450 SF +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +10 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -11.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -9.0 (+1.0) | 154.0 (-2.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -8.4 (+1.6) | 154.4 (-2.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -8.7 (+1.3) | 152.6 (-0.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -7.2 (+2.8) | 155.5 (-3.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | GONZ 80 – 59 SF |
| Jan 25, 2026 | GONZ 68 – 66 SF |
| Mar 11, 2025 | GONZ 85 – 76 SF |
| Mar 2, 2025 | GONZ 95 – 75 SF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | GONZ 88 – 77 SF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-4 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 13-1 | 10-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-1 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.2 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 24.4 (#1) | 13.1 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.50 (#4) | 2.16 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.52 (#1) | 3.03 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.616 (#16) | 0.593 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | SF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.2% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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