Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -9.9 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (-14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -7.6 (+15.4) | 152.8 (-9.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -7.9 (+15.1) | 157.1 (-14.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.1 (+14.9) | 155.8 (-12.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -8.2 (+14.8) | 154.4 (-11.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SDAK 75 – 70 SDST |
| Feb 7, 2026 | SDAK 68 – 67 SDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | SDST 94 – 91 SDAK |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SDST 90 – 71 SDAK |
| Feb 4, 2024 | SDST 70 – 67 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 18-0 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#76) | -2.3 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#42) | -0.07 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#60) | -0.23 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#22) | 0.495 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 44.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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