Purdue Fort Wayne
Mastodons
43
–
57
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
KEEPS Horizon League
Northern Kentucky
Norse
Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | PFW +115 NKU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +14 | 100 | Lost |
| Massey | NKU -1.2 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (-35.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.5 (-11.5) | 134.0 (-34.0) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -0.9 (-13.1) | 137.3 (-37.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -1.0 (-13.0) | 137.1 (-37.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -1.7 (-12.3) | 135.4 (-35.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#225) | -1.9 (#205) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#205) | -0.50 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#222) | -0.74 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#189) | 0.487 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 36.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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