Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +3 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -2.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -2.0 (+5.0) | 148.2 (-31.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -1.1 (+4.1) | 153.5 (-36.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -1.5 (+4.5) | 151.8 (-34.8) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -1.0 (+4.0) | 151.6 (-34.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 2, 2026 | COFC 79 – 76 UNCW |
| Feb 10, 2026 | UNCW 76 – 64 COFC |
| Mar 11, 2025 | UNCW 68 – 67 COFC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNCW 86 – 66 COFC |
| Jan 24, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 83 COFC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#186) | 1.3 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#111) | 0.34 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | 0.37 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#115) | 0.510 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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