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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–14 on winners spread MAE 7.5 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Oklahoma @ Baylor +8.4 137.1 78% 72–67 ✗
St. John's @ Villanova +9.3 150.4 80% 65–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Western Kentucky -1.9 149.0 43% 59–57 ✓
South Florida @ UCF +9.4 124.2 80% 58–60 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame -2.2 130.8 42% 87–80 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Siena -0.9 142.5 47% 77–71 ✓
Portland State @ Southern Utah +6.8 150.2 73% 77–65 ✗
McNeese @ LSU New Orleans +4.0 155.9 64% 78–82 ✓
Rhode Island @ Richmond +3.4 133.8 62% 59–64 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Alabama +4.8 151.3 67% 82–76 ✗
Washington State @ UCLA +7.3 136.3 75% 65–75 ✓
Utah State @ Colorado State +0.9 144.5 53% 51–53 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +4.1 135.4 65% 59–66 ✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ North Carolina Central +0.9 133.1 53% 56–68 ✓
UC Davis @ Cal State Fullerton +2.0 135.3 57% 55–73 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grand Canyon +4.6 123.1 66% 66–71 ✓
Penn State @ Ohio State +5.1 130.0 68% 71–68 ✗
Iowa State @ Texas Tech +6.4 124.8 72% 41–72 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ UAB +6.9 146.9 73% 66–80 ✓
Niagara @ Monmouth +2.1 130.3 58% 58–61 ✓
Virginia @ North Carolina +3.3 132.9 62% 43–63 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Florida A&M +1.7 123.2 56% 61–56 ✗
Seton Hall @ UConn +3.0 139.3 61% 52–62 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Northern Colorado +1.0 164.3 54% 67–68 ✓
Fresno State @ San Diego State +3.1 112.6 61% 46–53 ✓
UC Riverside @ Hawai'i +0.7 128.7 53% 67–68 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin +1.6 144.5 56% 76–62 ✗
Washington @ USC +7.9 143.0 76% 61–65 ✓
Indiana @ Illinois +4.3 138.9 65% 65–63 ✗
Texas A&M @ Auburn +8.9 144.3 79% 67–62 ✗
Fordham @ Davidson +9.7 134.6 81% 56–74 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas +4.7 123.4 67% 42–36 ✗
Cincinnati @ Houston +13.8 132.0 90% 56–69 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas -1.8 139.6 44% 67–79 ✗
Iowa @ Rutgers -9.5 147.2 19% 84–74 ✓
Saint Louis @ St. Bonaventure -3.1 141.6 39% 57–56 ✓
UAB @ Middle Tennessee -5.6 144.5 31% 102–98 ✓
Tulane @ Temple -2.2 140.2 42% 69–60 ✓
Grambling @ Texas Southern +7.0 134.9 74% 54–73 ✓
Akron @ Toledo +6.7 138.8 73% 70–62 ✗
Mississippi State @ Tennessee +7.1 134.2 74% 59–72 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Nicholls +3.7 146.3 63% 71–64 ✗
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +8.4 144.1 78% 63–72 ✓
Rider @ Monmouth +4.8 134.8 67% 68–72 ✓
Massachusetts @ Dayton +11.0 146.2 84% 72–75 ✓
Creighton @ Providence +2.5 134.1 59% 85–58 ✗
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +0.8 137.4 53% 69–63 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.