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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
31–11 on winners
spread MAE 6.8
42 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+10.4 | 144.2 | 83% | 62–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 152.9 | 81% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 141.4 | 79% | 58–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 132.0 | 44% | 61–67 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.1 | 146.4 | 57% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.7 | 57% | 79–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.6 | 142.5 | 83% | 71–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 160.1 | 44% | 65–74 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.4 | 136.8 | 72% | 52–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 129.9 | 60% | 75–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+12.9 | 149.8 | 88% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 135.2 | 61% | 60–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 135.4 | 81% | 61–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.0 | 145.5 | 74% | 69–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 148.7 | 41% | 64–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.4 | 130.4 | 48% | 70–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.3 | 129.3 | 72% | 55–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 142.9 | 48% | 72–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 132.2 | 56% | 61–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 126.8 | 67% | 64–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 155.8 | 63% | 79–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 139.4 | 73% | 59–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 133.7 | 50% | 46–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.6 | 144.1 | 48% | 78–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.1 | 127.6 | 46% | 63–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.9 | 146.0 | 91% | 43–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 160.3 | 72% | 73–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 143.6 | 67% | 82–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 150.9 | 70% | 77–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 141.0 | 80% | 57–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 144.6 | 51% | 69–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 148.5 | 62% | 61–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 142.3 | 45% | 62–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.9 | 139.4 | 90% | 66–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 131.2 | 63% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.5 | 149.1 | 72% | 70–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 127.7 | 56% | 54–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 147.9 | 41% | 70–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 143.8 | 61% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 119.1 | 47% | 52–53 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.2 | 133.4 | 35% | 87–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.3 | 130.2 | 78% | 48–54 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.