Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Over |
| Money | DUKE -475 MIA +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -9.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -8.1 (-4.1) | 148.0 (+8.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -7.1 (-3.1) | 152.6 (+3.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -7.1 (-3.1) | 152.7 (+3.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -7.4 (-3.4) | 149.2 (+6.8) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2025 | DUKE 97 – 60 MIA |
| Jan 15, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 54 MIA |
| Feb 22, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 55 MIA |
| Mar 11, 2023 | DUKE 85 – 78 MIA |
| Feb 7, 2023 | MIA 81 – 59 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#9) | 8.3 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#16) | 1.89 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.98 (#7) | 2.34 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#19) | 0.574 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.8% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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