Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +5 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -6.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -4.6 (+0.4) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.5 (+0.5) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -5.4 (-0.4) | 143.2 (+1.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.8 (+0.2) | 142.0 (+3.0) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MSU 76 – 74 PUR |
| Feb 19, 2025 | MSU 75 – 66 PUR |
| Mar 15, 2024 | PUR 67 – 62 MSU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | PUR 80 – 74 MSU |
| Jan 29, 2023 | PUR 77 – 61 MSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#12) | 11.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#10) | 2.42 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#10) | 2.91 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#16) | 0.594 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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