Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | MTST +105 WEB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +3 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -1.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -1.6 (+1.4) | 143.9 (-8.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -2.5 (+0.5) | 145.3 (-10.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -2.6 (+0.4) | 146.1 (-11.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -2.3 (+0.7) | 145.6 (-10.6) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | WEB 82 – 79 MTST |
| Jan 25, 2026 | MTST 91 – 88 WEB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MTST 74 – 66 WEB |
| Jan 19, 2025 | MTST 80 – 71 WEB |
| Mar 11, 2024 | MTST 91 – 82 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#142) | -0.4 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#111) | 0.08 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#108) | 0.21 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#64) | 0.502 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 19.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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