Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TA&M +18 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -4.9 (-22.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.4 (-22.4) | 143.7 (+2.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -3.0 (-21.0) | 143.5 (+2.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -2.9 (-20.9) | 141.3 (+4.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -2.3 (-20.3) | 144.8 (+1.2) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 27-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 16-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#19) | 9.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#19) | 2.01 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#18) | 2.38 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#22) | 0.560 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 24.0% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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