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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–5 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
13 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Akron
@
Kent State
|
+0.3 | 124.8 | 51% | 75–55 | ✗ |
Northern Colorado
@
Montana State
|
+4.0 | 154.4 | 64% | 66–87 | ✓ |
Virginia Tech
@
Duke
|
+4.8 | 139.2 | 67% | 82–67 | ✗ |
Louisiana Tech
@
UAB
|
+5.0 | 148.1 | 67% | 73–82 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Arizona
|
+2.2 | 153.0 | 58% | 76–84 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
SE Louisiana
|
-1.8 | 152.2 | 44% | 73–65 | ✓ |
Abilene Christian
@
New Mexico State
|
+3.3 | 143.1 | 62% | 52–66 | ✓ |
Cal State Fullerton
@
Long Beach State
|
-0.7 | 145.7 | 47% | 72–71 | ✓ |
Yale
@
Princeton
|
+3.2 | 148.2 | 62% | 66–64 | ✗ |
Texas A&M
@
Tennessee
|
+8.1 | 134.9 | 77% | 50–65 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Davidson
|
+3.4 | 143.8 | 62% | 64–62 | ✗ |
Memphis
@
Houston
|
+8.2 | 140.5 | 77% | 53–71 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Purdue
|
+0.7 | 163.9 | 53% | 75–66 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.