Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -155 IOWA +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +9 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | IOWA -0.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -0.2 (-8.8) | 152.7 (-11.7) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -0.2 (-8.8) | 156.4 (-15.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -0.4 (-8.6) | 152.5 (-11.5) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -0.6 (-8.4) | 152.6 (-11.6) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PUR 78 – 57 IOWA |
| Jan 14, 2026 | PUR 79 – 72 IOWA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | PUR 90 – 81 IOWA |
| Jan 20, 2024 | PUR 84 – 70 IOWA |
| Dec 5, 2023 | PUR 87 – 68 IOWA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 17.2 (#14) | 17.3 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.20 (#9) | 2.47 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#9) | 3.17 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.614 (#14) | 0.589 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | IOWA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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