Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +21 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -3.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -3.1 (+17.9) | 149.2 (+3.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -3.8 (+17.2) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -3.4 (+17.6) | 151.6 (+1.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -3.8 (+17.2) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MTST 73 – 68 UNCO |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MTST 89 – 75 UNCO |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNCO 72 – 45 MTST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UNCO 73 – 66 MTST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 82 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-16 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 78.0 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#142) | -2.3 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#109) | 0.02 (#173) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#106) | -0.07 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#62) | 0.529 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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