Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | PUR -600 PSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -10.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -7.5 (+0.5) | 129.4 (+0.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -8.9 (-0.9) | 133.2 (-3.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -8.7 (-0.7) | 133.4 (-3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -8.6 (-0.6) | 132.2 (-2.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | PUR 93 – 85 PSU |
| Dec 5, 2024 | PSU 81 – 70 PUR |
| Jan 13, 2024 | PUR 95 – 78 PSU |
| Mar 12, 2023 | PUR 67 – 65 PSU |
| Feb 1, 2023 | PUR 80 – 60 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 65.0 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#12) | 6.8 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.09 (#10) | 1.17 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.82 (#10) | 1.45 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#16) | 0.523 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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