Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -150 CONN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +3 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -2.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.9 (+0.1) | 132.3 (-9.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -2.0 (+1.0) | 135.7 (-12.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -2.4 (+0.6) | 130.3 (-7.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -2.0 (+1.0) | 132.4 (-9.4) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CONN 73 – 63 VILL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | CONN 75 – 67 VILL |
| Mar 14, 2025 | CONN 73 – 56 VILL |
| Feb 18, 2025 | CONN 66 – 59 VILL |
| Jan 8, 2025 | VILL 68 – 66 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-6 |
| Home | 12-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#14) | 15.1 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.30 (#6) | 2.83 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#9) | 3.50 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#5) | 0.594 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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