Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.0 Under |
| Money | YALE -165 PENN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +6 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -3.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -2.3 (+3.7) | 145.3 (-17.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -3.0 (+3.0) | 146.8 (-18.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -2.9 (+3.1) | 147.6 (-19.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -2.3 (+3.7) | 148.4 (-20.4) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 12-16 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | -2.4 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#142) | -0.22 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#143) | -0.31 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#77) | 0.503 (#171) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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