Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +25 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -4.3 (-20.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -3.9 (-21.1) | 135.2 (+13.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -2.5 (-22.5) | 135.9 (+13.1) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -2.3 (-22.7) | 136.4 (+12.6) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -2.3 (-22.7) | 137.1 (+11.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 6-3 | 7-2 |
| Away | 9-13 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#264) | -1.5 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#230) | -0.44 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#242) | -0.56 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.500 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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