Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | UCLA -250 USC +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -6.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -5.6 (+4.4) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -5.4 (+4.6) | 142.9 (-14.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -6.6 (+3.4) | 142.7 (-14.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -6.1 (+3.9) | 141.5 (-13.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UCLA 89 – 68 USC |
| Feb 25, 2026 | UCLA 81 – 62 USC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCLA 90 – 63 USC |
| Jan 28, 2025 | UCLA 82 – 76 USC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | USC 62 – 56 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#11) | 11.0 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#14) | 2.71 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.81 (#12) | 3.01 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.623 (#10) | 0.587 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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