Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | CSU +115 SDSU -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +5 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -1.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (-5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -0.6 (-4.4) | 122.5 (-1.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -0.8 (-4.2) | 125.5 (-4.5) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -0.6 (-4.4) | 123.3 (-2.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -0.3 (-4.7) | 126.8 (-5.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-6 | 23-9 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 6-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 58.1 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#40) | 11.9 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.08 (#11) | 2.52 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.23 (#19) | 3.01 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#13) | 0.608 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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