Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +39 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -14.4 (+24.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -13.2 (+25.8) | 145.4 (-20.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -13.6 (+25.4) | 147.4 (-22.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -13.2 (+25.8) | 146.7 (-21.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -14.8 (+24.2) | 144.4 (-19.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | UMBC 74 – 59 UVM |
| Feb 19, 2026 | UMBC 75 – 62 UVM |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UVM 64 – 55 UMBC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UVM 79 – 69 UMBC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UMBC 80 – 63 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-4 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#65) | -3.0 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#78) | -0.53 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#70) | -0.79 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#34) | 0.488 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 22.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 81.3% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.5% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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