Houston
Cougars
69
–
56
FINAL
Neutral
Conference
Air Force Reserve American Athletic Conference
Cincinnati
Bearcats
Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +13 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -13.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -11.9 (+1.1) | 132.3 (-7.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.8 (+1.2) | 133.6 (-8.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -12.3 (+0.7) | 133.2 (-8.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -11.0 (+2.0) | 134.0 (-9.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 19.7 (#4) | 6.0 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#22) | 0.63 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#17) | 1.04 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#9) | 0.512 (#152) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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