Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +7 | 99 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -3.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -4.5 (+2.5) | 119.4 (-20.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -3.6 (+3.4) | 120.6 (-21.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -3.0 (+4.0) | 120.2 (-21.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -2.2 (+4.8) | 121.8 (-22.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 59.6 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#27) | 7.8 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#25) | 1.15 (#87) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.95 (#28) | 1.58 (#80) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#20) | 0.530 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 78.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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