Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +14 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -1.4 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.5 (-14.5) | 141.3 (-3.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.4 (-15.4) | 142.7 (-4.7) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -1.4 (-15.4) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.0 (-15.0) | 142.8 (-4.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#108) | 2.9 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#96) | 0.58 (#125) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#110) | 0.74 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#58) | 0.523 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 28.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 35.1% |
Game Analysis
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