Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +18 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -2.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -1.9 (+16.1) | 133.2 (-5.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -2.0 (+16.0) | 134.5 (-6.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -2.0 (+16.0) | 134.8 (-6.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -2.4 (+15.6) | 135.6 (-7.6) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | CSUF 82 – 70 UCD |
| Feb 20, 2026 | CSUF 93 – 92 UCD |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UCD 74 – 69 CSUF |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UCD 65 – 49 CSUF |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCD 63 – 53 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 5-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#164) | -2.0 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#148) | -0.36 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#159) | -0.52 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#146) | 0.470 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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