Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Under |
| Money | UNC -190 UVA +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +20 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -3.8 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.0 (+17.0) | 128.7 (-22.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -4.0 (+16.0) | 134.1 (-28.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.6 (+16.4) | 131.3 (-25.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.0 (+17.0) | 128.2 (-22.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | UNC 85 – 80 UVA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UNC 81 – 66 UVA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UNC 54 – 44 UVA |
| Mar 10, 2023 | UVA 68 – 59 UNC |
| Feb 25, 2023 | UNC 71 – 63 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#37) | 7.1 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#37) | 1.39 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#36) | 1.67 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#27) | 0.545 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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